RESUMO
Most COVID-19 studies commonly report figures of the overall infection at a state- or county-level. This aggregation tends to miss out on fine details of virus propagation. In this paper, we analyze a high-resolution COVID-19 dataset in Cali, Colombia, that records the precise time and location of every confirmed case. We develop a non-stationary spatio-temporal point process equipped with a neural network-based kernel to capture the heterogeneous correlations among COVID-19 cases. The kernel is carefully crafted to enhance expressiveness while maintaining model interpretability. We also incorporate some exogenous influences imposed by city landmarks. Our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art in forecasting new COVID-19 cases with the capability to offer vital insights into the spatio-temporal interaction between individuals concerning the disease spread in a metropolis.
RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Healthcare systems have been put under intense pressure by the COVID-19 pandemic, although some studies have shown a decline in hospital admissions for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases during the first and second wave of the pandemic. In addition, studies analyzing gender and procedural differences are scarce. The present study aimed to determine the impact of the pandemic on hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) in Andalusia (Spain) and analyzed differences by gender and by percutaneous coronary interventions performed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: An interrupted time series analysis of AMI and CVD hospital admissions in Andalusia (Spain) was carried out to measure the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. AMI and CVD cases admitted daily in public hospitals of Andalusia between January 2018 and December 2020 were included. RESULTS: During the pandemic, significant reductions in AMI [-19%; 95% confidence interval (CI): (-29%, -9%), p<0.001] and CVD [-17%; 95% CI: (-26%, -9%); p<0.01] in daily hospital admissions were observed. Differences were also produced according to the diagnosis (ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction, Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction, other AMI and stroke), with a greater reduction in females for AMI and in males for CVD. Although there were more percutaneous coronary interventions during the pandemic, no significant reductions were observed. CONCLUSIONS: A decline in AMI and CVD daily hospital admissions during the first and second wave of COVID-19 pandemic was noted. Gender differences were observed, but no clear impact was observed in percutaneous interventions.